138 citations · 1.3k across the 50 of their papers we have counts for
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math.DS2016★ 1 cited
Early-warning indicators in the dynamic regime
Paul Ritchie, Jan Sieber
Early-warning indicators (increase of autocorrelation and variance) are commonly applied to time series data to try and detect tipping points of real-world systems. The theory behi…
math.DS2016★ 48 cited
Probability of noise- and rate-induced tipping
Paul Ritchie, Jan Sieber
We propose an approximation for the probability of tipping when the speed of parameter change and additive white noise interact to cause tipping. Our approximation is valid for sma…