3 papers
physics.space-ph2026
Validation of Space Weather Forecasting at Leonid Space
Scott Shambaugh
We validate Leonid Space's space weather forecasts through comprehensive cross-validation of retroforecasts scored against the entire F10.7 and Ap historical record. We built a uni…
physics.space-ph2026
The Billion Dollar Surprise: How Solar Cycle 25 Cut Satellite Lifetimes in LEO
Scott Shambaugh
Solar Cycle 25 has run far stronger than the 2019 consensus forecast issued by the NOAA/NASA/ISES prediction panel, with densities in low Earth orbit from 2022-2026 holding at 2-3x…
astro-ph.IM2026
Validation of Satellite Lifetime Predictions at Leonid Space
Scott Shambaugh
This paper validates Leonid Space's satellite lifetime prediction pipeline through a backtesting campaign of 878 deorbited satellites spanning six decades of spaceflight, showing t…