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cs.LG2026
ProbabilityBench: Model Evaluation and Calibration with Exact Ground-Truth Uncertainty
Yuyang Dai, Yuting Tang, Futoshi Futami +1
Evaluating model uncertainty on real-world data is challenging because each instance provides only a single observed label, leaving true conditional class probabilities unknown. To…
cs.LG2026
Does Your Wildfire Prediction Model Actually Work, or Just Score Well?
Yangshuang Xu, Yuyang Dai, Liling Chang +2
Wildfire prediction is important for early warning and resource allocation, yet existing Earth foundation models (Earth FMs) are pretrained for general atmospheric and geophysical…