3 papers
cs.CY2026
Digital Ecosystems: Enabling Collaboration in a Fragmented World
Marc Schmitt
As geopolitical, organizational, and technological fragmentation deepens, resilient digital collaboration becomes imperative. This paper develops a spectrum framework of polycentri…
q-fin.RM2026
Algorithmic Monitoring: Measuring Market Stress with Machine Learning
Marc Schmitt
I construct a Market Stress Probability Index (MSPI) that estimates the probability of high stress in the U.S. equity market one month ahead using information from the cross-sectio…
q-fin.RM2026
Taming Tail Risk in Financial Markets: Conformal Calibration for Nonstationary Portfolio VaR
Marc Schmitt
Value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts drive trading constraints and capital allocation, yet realized exceedance rates concentrate in stress periods, when losses are largest. This paper stu…