5 papers
Super-Level-Set Regression: Conditional Quantiles via Volume Minimization
Sacha Braun, Michael I. Jordan, Francis Bach
Constructing minimum-volume prediction regions that satisfy conditional coverage is a fundamental challenge in multivariate regression. Standard approaches rely on explicitly estim…
A Variational Estimator for Calibration Errors
Eugène Berta, Sacha Braun, David Holzmüller +2
Calibration$\unicode{x2014}$the problem of ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed class frequencies$\unicode{x2014}$is a basic desideratum for reliable predictio…
Conditional Coverage Diagnostics for Conformal Prediction
Sacha Braun, David Holzmüller, Michael I. Jordan +1
Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on…
Multivariate Standardized Residuals for Conformal Prediction
Sacha Braun, Eugène Berta, Michael I. Jordan +1
While split conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage, approaching the stronger property of conditional coverage is essential for reliable uncertainty quantification. Naive…
Minimum Volume Conformal Sets for Multivariate Regression
Sacha Braun, Liviu Aolaritei, Michael I. Jordan +1
Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for constructing predictive sets with finite-sample validity. While much of the focus has been on univariate response variables…