7 papers
A Three-Way Testing Framework for Quantifying Epistemic Calibration Uncertainty in SBI
Luben M. C. Cabezas, Pedro L. C. Rodrigues, Rafael Izbicki
Current experimental scientists increasingly rely on simulation-based inference (SBI) to invert complex models with intractable likelihoods. A primary goal in these settings is to…
Calibrating subgrid parametrizations of single-column ocean models via simulation-based inference
Luben M. C. Cabezas, Sacha Wendling, Aurèle Gallard +3
Subgrid parametrizations of vertical mixing in ocean models depend on free coefficients that cannot be measured directly and must be calibrated against high-fidelity references suc…
Conformal Prediction via Transported Beta Laws
Thiago R. Ramos, Helton Graziadei, Luben M. C. Cabezas
Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, but this guarantee averages over the random calibration sample. We study instead the law…
CREDO: Epistemic-Aware Conformalized Credal Envelopes for Regression
Luben M. C. Cabezas, Sabina J. Sloman, Bruno M. Resende +3
Conformal prediction delivers prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage, but its intervals can look overconfident in regions where the model is extrapolating, because st…
LoBoost: Fast Model-Native Local Conformal Prediction for Gradient-Boosted Trees
Vagner Santos, Victor Coscrato, Luben Cabezas +2
Gradient-boosted decision trees are among the strongest off-the-shelf predictors for tabular regression, but point predictions alone do not quantify uncertainty. Conformal predicti…
Conformal Prediction for Compositional Data
Lucas P. Amaral, Luben M. C. Cabezas, Thiago R. Ramos +1
Dirichlet regression models are suitable for compositional data, in which the response variable represents proportions that sum to one. However, there are still no well-established…
CP4SBI: Local Conformal Calibration of Credible Sets in Simulation-Based Inference
Luben M. C. Cabezas, Vagner S. Santos, Thiago R. Ramos +2
Current experimental scientists have been increasingly relying on simulation-based inference (SBI) to invert complex non-linear models with intractable likelihoods. However, poster…