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econ.EM2026
At-Risk Transformation for U.S. Recession Prediction
Rahul Billakanti, Minchul Shin
We propose a simple binarization of predictors, an "at-risk" transformation, as an alternative to the standard practice of using continuous, standardized variables in recession for…
econ.EM2026
An Auditable AI Agent Loop for Empirical Economics: A Case Study in Forecast Combination
Minchul Shin
AI coding agents, general purpose assistants that write and execute code, make empirical specification search fast and cheap, but they also widen hidden researcher degrees of freed…