443 citations · 867 across the 33 of their papers we have counts for
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stat.AP2014★ 33 cited
Probability aggregation in time-series: Dynamic hierarchical modeling of sparse expert beliefs
Ville A. Satopää, Shane T. Jensen, Barbara A. Mellers +2
Most subjective probability aggregation procedures use a single probability judgment from each expert, even though it is common for experts studying real problems to update their p…
stat.ME2014
Modeling Probability Forecasts via Information Diversity
Ville A. Satopää, Robin Pemantle, Lyle H. Ungar
Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity s…