443 citations · 867 across the 33 of their papers we have counts for
3 papers · 1 filter
Bayesian aggregation of two forecasts in the partial information framework
Philip Ernst, Robin Pemantle, Ville Satopaa +1
We generalize the results of \cite{SPU, SJPU} by showing how the Gaussian aggregator may be computed in a setting where parameter estimation is not required. We proceed to provide…
Partial Information Framework: Model-Based Aggregation of Estimates from Diverse Information Sources
Ville A. Satopää, Shane T. Jensen, Robin Pemantle +1
Prediction polling is an increasingly popular form of crowdsourcing in which multiple participants estimate the probability or magnitude of some future event. These estimates are t…
Modeling Probability Forecasts via Information Diversity
Ville A. Satopää, Robin Pemantle, Lyle H. Ungar
Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity s…