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stat.AP2026
Conformal prediction for functional time series: Application to age-specific mortality rates
Han Lin Shang
In demographic literature, forecast uncertainty is often quantified with a statistical model. This model-based approach may potentially suffer from drawbacks, namely model misspeci…
stat.AP2025
Forecasting Australian Electricity Generation by Fuel Mix
Han Lin Shang, Lin Han, Stefan Trück
Electricity demand and generation have become increasingly unpredictable with the growing share of variable renewable energy sources in the power system. Forecasting electricity su…
stat.AP2024
Change-point detection in functional time series: Applications to age-specific mortality and fertility
Han Lin Shang
We consider determining change points in a time series of age-specific mortality and fertility curves observed over time. We propose two detection methods for identifying these cha…