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stat.ME2026
Conflict Forecasting via Conformal Prediction for Markov Processes
Aditya Basarkar, Emmett B. Kendall, David Randahl +2
Whether or not a country is at war, or experiencing escalating or deescalating levels of conflict, has massive ramifications on a country's national and foreign policy. Given a cou…
stat.ME2026
Estimation, inference and model selection for jump regression models
Steffen Grønneberg, Gudmund Hermansen, Nils Lid Hjort
We consider regression models with data of the type , where the curve is taken locally constant, with unknown levels and jump points. We investigat…
stat.ME2026
Parametric or nonparametric: the FIC approach for stationary time series
Gudmund Hermansen, Nils Lid Hjort, Martin Jullum
We seek to narrow the gap between parametric and nonparametric modelling of stationary time series processes. The approach is inspired by recent advances in focused inference and m…