3 papers
math.ST2026
On equitable scoring functions and optimal forecasting behaviour
Robert J. Taggart, Nicholas Loveday
Equitable scoring functions have a long history in meteorological forecast verification and have recently gained renewed prominence through the use of the Stable Equitable Error in…
cs.LG2026
Extreme Weather Bench: A framework and benchmark for evaluation of high-impact weather
Amy McGovern, Taylor Mandelbaum, Daniel Rothenberg +6
Forecasting the wide variety of high-impact weather events experienced globally is a challenge for both Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models a…
math.ST2026
On the evaluation of time-to-event, survival time and first passage time forecasts
Robert J. Taggart, Nicholas Loveday, Simon Louis
Time-to-event forecasts are essential when decisions depend on event timing. This article develops a framework for evaluating such forecasts when the event has not yet occurred or…