5 papers
Faithful Embeddings of Irregular and Asynchronous Data for Online Log-NCDEs
Benjamin Walker, Alexandre Bloch, Lingyi Yang +2
Continuous-time models are a natural choice for irregular and asynchronous data. A central design choice is how to embed discrete observations into continuous time. Interpolation-…
Chess-World-Model: A 10M-Game Benchmark for Exact State Tracking from Chess Move Sequences
Benjamin Walker, Terry Lyons
World models require state tracking, which is the ability to maintain a correct latent state across action sequences. Existing benchmarks are often synthetic or language-based, lim…
The Exponentially Weighted Signature
Alexandre Bloch, Samuel N. Cohen, Terry Lyons +2
The signature is a canonical representation of a multidimensional path over an interval. However, it treats all historical information uniformly, offering no intrinsic mechanism fo…
Seeking SOTA: Time-Series Forecasting Must Adopt Taxonomy-Specific Evaluation to Dispel Illusory Gains
Raeid Saqur, Christoph Bergmeir, Blanka Horvath +3
We argue that the current practice of evaluating AI/ML time-series forecasting models, predominantly on benchmarks characterized by strong, persistent periodicities and seasonaliti…
Structured Linear CDEs: Maximally Expressive and Parallel-in-Time Sequence Models
Benjamin Walker, Lingyi Yang, Nicola Muca Cirone +2
This work introduces Structured Linear Controlled Differential Equations (SLiCEs), a unifying framework for sequence models with structured, input-dependent state-transition matric…