7 citations · 10 across the 4 of their papers we have counts for
4 papers · 1 filter
Uncertain Climate Forecasts From Multimodel Ensembles: When to Use Them and When to Ignore Them
Stephen Jewson, Dan Rowlands
Uncertainty around multimodel ensemble forecasts of changes in future climate reduces the accuracy of those forecasts. For very uncertain forecasts this effect may mean that the fo…
Objective Climate Model Predictions Using Jeffreys' Prior: the General Multivariate Normal Case
Stephen Jewson, Dan Rowlands, Myles Allen
Objective probabilistic forecasts of future climate that include parameter uncertainty can be made by using the Bayesian prediction integral with the prior set to Jeffreys' Prior.…
Objective Probabilistic Forecasts of Future Climate Based on Jeffreys' Prior: the Case of Correlated Observables
Stephen Jewson, Dan Rowlands, Myles Allen
To include parameter uncertainty into probabilistic climate forecasts one must first specify a prior. We advocate the use of objective priors, and, in particular, the Jeffreys' Pri…
A new method for making objective probabilistic climate forecasts from numerical climate models based on Jeffreys' Prior
Stephen Jewson, Dan Rowlands, Myles Allen
We argue that it would be desirable to use Jeffreys' priors in the construction of numerical model based probabilistic climate forecasts, in order that those forecasts could be arg…