19 papers
Design-Based Anytime-Valid Inference for Randomized Experiments with Delayed Outcomes and Staggered Entry
Michael Lindon, Nathan Kallus
Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation: treatment can affect whether an outcome occurs, when it occurs, and its realized value. To accommodate staggered entry wh…
Entropy After </Think> for reasoning model early exiting
Xi Wang, James McInerney, Lequn Wang +1
Reasoning LLMs show improved performance with longer chains of thought. However, recent work has highlighted their tendency to overthink, continuing to revise answers even after re…
GAAVI: Global Asymptotic Anytime Valid Inference for the Conditional Mean Function
Brian M Cho, Raaz Dwivedi, Nathan Kallus
Inference on the conditional mean function (CMF) is central to tasks from adaptive experimentation to optimal treatment assignment and algorithmic fairness auditing. In this work,…
Causal Inference on Networks under Misspecified Exposure Mappings: A Partial Identification Framework
Maresa Schröder, Miruna Oprescu, Stefan Feuerriegel +1
Estimating treatment effects in networks is challenging, as each potential outcome depends on the treatments of all other nodes in the network. To overcome this difficulty, existin…
Exploration in the Limit
Brian M. Cho, Nathan Kallus
In fixed-confidence best arm identification (BAI), the objective is to quickly identify the optimal option while controlling the probability of error below a desired threshold. Des…
Experimentation Under Non-stationary Interference
Su Jia, Peter Frazier, Nathan Kallus +1
We study the estimation of the ATE in randomized controlled trials under a dynamically evolving interference structure. This setting arises in applications such as ride-sharing, wh…