2 papers
econ.GN2026
Recession Detection Using Real Time GDP Data
Neha Sikand, Rongjin Zhang
This paper examines whether real-time GDP announcements can reliably identify business-cycle turning points. Using U.S. real-time GDP vintages from 1947 to 2021, we construct 4,356…
econ.GN2026
Recession Detection in Japan using Labor Market Data
Neha Sikand, Rongjin Zhang
Recession indicators are often viewed as U.S. specific, raising the question of whether labor market-based rules such as the Sahm Rule and the Michez Rule can reliably detect reces…