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math.PR2026

Persistence probabilities of fractional Lévy fields indexed by hyperbolic space and other Riemannian manifolds

Frank Aurzada, Max Helmer

We study the persistence probability of fractional Lévy fields, i.e. the analogue of fractional Brownian motion with generalised (multi-dimensional) index sets. First, we compute t…

math.PR2026

MA(1) processes with uniform innovations conditioned to stay positive in the non-expanding regime

Frank Aurzada, Virginia Worf

We study an MA(1)-process with uniform innovations conditioned to stay positive. Representing the model as a Markov chain, we prove the existence of the limiting finite-dimensional…

math.PR2026

Persistence Probability of Fractional Brownian Motion with Random Hurst Exponent

Frank Aurzada, Sabine Müller

We study the persistence properties of a fractional Brownian motion whose Hurst exponent is a random variable instead of a fixed constant. For each fixed , it is well…

math.PR2025

Persistence probabilities of MA(1) sequences with Laplace innovations and -deformed zigzag numbers

Frank Aurzada, Kilian Raschel

We study the persistence probabilities of a moving average process of order one with innovations that follow a Laplace distribution. The persistence probabilities can be computed f…

math.PR2025

Persistence probabilities for MA(1) sequences with uniform innovations

Frank Aurzada, Kilian Raschel

We study the persistence probabilities of a moving average process of order one with uniform innovations. We identify a number of regions, characterized by the location of the unif…

math.PR2025

Persistence probabilities of spherical fractional Brownian motion

Frank Aurzada, Max Helmer

We compute the rate of decay of the persistence probabilities of spherical fractional Brownian motion, which was defined by Lévy (1965) and Istas (2005). The rate resembles the Eu…