activity
20242026
collaborators

5 papers

stat.AP2026

AI and physics-based weather forecasting: A comparative study

Mátyás Kocsis, Sándor Baran

In the last few years, AI-based models have become the centre of attention in weather forecasting due to their increasing accuracy and efficiency. Pioneering among weather services…

stat.AP2025

Post-processing of ensemble photovoltaic power forecasts with distributional and quantile regression methods

Martin János Mayer, Ágnes Baran, Sebastian Lerch +3

Accurate and reliable forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is crucial for grid operations, electricity markets, and energy planning, as solar systems now contribute a…

stat.ME2025

Fair Box ordinate transform for forecasts following a multivariate Gaussian law

Sándor Baran, Martin Leutbecher

Monte Carlo techniques are the method of choice for making probabilistic predictions of an outcome in several disciplines. Usually, the aim is to generate calibrated predictions wh…

stat.AP2025

Statistical post-processing of operational dual-resolution wind-speed ensemble forecasts

Sándor Baran, Mária Lakatos

Weather forecasting presents several challenges, including the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and the high computational demands of numerical weather prediction models. To achiev…

stat.AP2024

Machine learning-based probabilistic forecasting of solar irradiance in Chile

Sándor Baran, Julio C. Marín, Omar Cuevas +4

By the end of 2023, renewable sources cover 63.4% of the total electric power demand of Chile, and in line with the global trend, photovoltaic (PV) power shows the most dynamic inc…