5 citations · 12 across the 9 of their papers we have counts for
9 papers · 1 filter
An Exact Poisson Mixture Representation of Siler Remaining Life Expectancy
Silvio C. Patricio
The Siler model describes mortality from birth to old age as the sum of a declining immaturity hazard, a constant background hazard, and an increasing senescence hazard. No standar…
Rescheduled, not redefined: The moving plateau of old-age mortality
Silvio C. Patricio, Trifon I. Missov
Whether the risk of death keeps climbing at extreme ages or levels off has divided researchers for a century. We show this conflict reflects a moving target. Using cohort data from…
Evidence on Slowing Progress in Longevity -- Is it Misleading?
Silvio Patricio, Annette Baudisch
A growing literature argues that progress in human longevity is slowing, and that this slowdown may signal an approaching biological limit to lifespan. The argument rests on visibl…
The Rhythm of Aging: Stability and Drift in the Individual Rate of Senescence
Silvio Cabral Patricio
Human aging is marked by a steady rise in the risk of dying with age-a process demographers call senescence. Over the past century, life expectancy has risen dramatically, but is t…
A Probabilistic Framework for Estimating the Modal Age at Death
Silvio C. Patricio, Paola Vazquez-Castillo
The modal age at death is used to track longevity, but existing methods report it as a single number. We estimate its posterior distribution. Death counts are modeled as Poisson gi…
How life-table right-censoring affected the Brazilian Social Security Factor: an application of the gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model
Filipe Costa de Souza, Wilton Bernardino, Silvio Cabral Patricio
Automatic Adjustment Mechanisms (AAM) are legal instruments that help social security systems respond to demographic and economic changes. In Brazil, the Social Security Factor (SS…
Makeham Mortality Models as Mixtures
Silvio C. Patricio, Trifon I. Missov
The Makeham term is a crucial element in mortality modeling, representing a constant additive hazard that addresses background mortality factors unrelated to aging. Widely used in…
Improvements in Age-Specific Mortality at the Oldest Ages
Trifon I. Missov, Silvio C. Patricio, Francisco Villavicencio
Age-specific mortality improvements are non-uniform, neither across ages nor across time. We propose a two-step procedure to estimate the rates of mortality improvement (RMI) in ag…
Mortality modeling at old-age: a mixture model approach
Silvio C. Patricio, Fredy Castellares, Bernardo L. Queiroz
This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Bear…