13 citations · 52 across the 14 of their papers we have counts for
14 papers
Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: modelling the autocorrelation in track shape
Tim Hall, Stephen Jewson
We describe results from the third stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. In the second…
Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers
Shree Khare, Stephen Jewson
We present a simple method for the year-ahead prediction of the number of hurricanes making landfall in the US. The method is based on averages of historical annual hurricane numbe…
Improving on the empirical covariance matrix using truncated PCA with white noise residuals
Stephen Jewson
The empirical covariance matrix is not necessarily the best estimator for the population covariance matrix: we describe a simple method which gives better estimates in two examples…
Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: a comparison of models for the variance of trajectories
Tim Hall, Stephen Jewson
We describe results from the second stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. We now attemp…
Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: a semi-parametric model for the mean trajectory
Tim Hall, Stephen Jewson
We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of hurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together observed hurricane displacements. It ha…
Probabilistic temperature forecasting: a comparison of four spread-regression models
Stephen Jewson
Spread regression is an extension of linear regression that allows for the inclusion of a predictor that contains information about the variance. It can be used to take the informa…