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20032005
most citedThe problem with the Brier score

13 citations · 52 across the 14 of their papers we have counts for

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14 papers

physics.ao-ph20053 cited

Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: modelling the autocorrelation in track shape

Tim Hall, Stephen Jewson

We describe results from the third stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. In the second…

physics.ao-ph20055 cited

Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers

Shree Khare, Stephen Jewson

We present a simple method for the year-ahead prediction of the number of hurricanes making landfall in the US. The method is based on averages of historical annual hurricane numbe…

physics.ao-ph20051 cited

Improving on the empirical covariance matrix using truncated PCA with white noise residuals

Stephen Jewson

The empirical covariance matrix is not necessarily the best estimator for the population covariance matrix: we describe a simple method which gives better estimates in two examples…

physics.ao-ph20056 cited

Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: a comparison of models for the variance of trajectories

Tim Hall, Stephen Jewson

We describe results from the second stage of a project to build a statistical model for hurricane tracks. In the first stage we modelled the unconditional mean track. We now attemp…

physics.ao-ph200510 cited

Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone tracks: a semi-parametric model for the mean trajectory

Tim Hall, Stephen Jewson

We present a statistical model for the unconditional mean tracks of hurricanes. Our model is a semi-parametric scheme that averages together observed hurricane displacements. It ha…

physics.ao-ph2004

Probabilistic temperature forecasting: a comparison of four spread-regression models

Stephen Jewson

Spread regression is an extension of linear regression that allows for the inclusion of a predictor that contains information about the variance. It can be used to take the informa…