3 papers
physics.data-an2026
The Squealer: Sensification of model exploration and model misfit
Andrew Gelman, Andrew H. Jaffe, Eliot Carlson +1
We introduce a method for visual and auditory feedback when exploring the fit of a model to data. Starting with a best-fit curve fit to data, the user can drag the curve to a new p…
stat.ME2026
Approximate posterior recalibration
Tiffany Cai, Philip Greengard, Ben Goodrich +1
Bayesian inference is often implemented using approximations, which can yield interval estimates that are too narrow, not fully capturing the uncertainty in the posterior distribut…
stat.OT2024
Russian roulette: The need for stochastic potential outcomes when utilities depend on counterfactuals
Andrew Gelman, Jonas M. Mikhaeil
It has been proposed in medical decision analysis to express the ``first do no harm'' principle as an asymmetric utility function in which the loss from killing a patient would cou…