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Collaborative estimation and evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 variant nowcasting in the United States
Isaac MacArthur, Thomas Robacker, Bren Case +27
The ability to estimate and predict pathogen variant dynamics can inform public health responses, including planning for increased transmission or severity, shifts in population im…
modelimportance: An R package for evaluating model importance within a multi-model ensemble
Minsu Kim, Li Shandross, Evan L. Ray +1
Ensemble forecasts are commonly used to support decision-making and policy planning across various fields because they often offer improved accuracy and stability compared to indiv…
Comparison of probabilistic nowcasts and forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 variant proportions made by hierarchical multinomial linear regression models
Isaac MacArthur, Thomas Robacker, Evan L. Ray +3
Nowcasting and forecasting of infectious diseases have become increasingly important since the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In particular, methods for modeling the composition of circulati…