15 citations · 15 across the 2 of their papers we have counts for
2 papers
cs.CY2024★ 15 cited
Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events
Daniel M. Benjamin, Fred Morstatter, Ali E. Abbas +26
Sound decision-making relies on accurate prediction for tangible outcomes ranging from military conflict to disease outbreaks. To improve crowdsourced forecasting accuracy, we deve…
stat.AP2024
Identifying good forecasters via adaptive cognitive tests
Edgar C. Merkle, Nikolay Petrov, Sophie Ma Zhu +3
Assessing forecasting performance is a time intensive activity, often requiring months or years before we know whether or not the reported forecasts were accurate. Cognitive tests…