most citedAIFS-CRPS: Ensemble forecasting using a model trained with a loss function based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score

9 citations · 9 across the 2 of their papers we have counts for

collaborators

3 papers

physics.ao-ph2026

Ensemble size effects on conditional reliability estimates: slope attenuation bias and correction methods

Jonas Spaeth, Christopher D. Roberts

The goal of ensemble forecasting is to maximise sharpness subject to reliability. Marginal reliability means that, over all cases, the ensemble is statistically consistent with rea…

physics.ao-ph2026

Ensemble-size-dependence of deep-learning post-processing methods that minimize an (un)fair score: motivating examples and a proof-of-concept solution

Christopher David Roberts

Fair scores reward ensemble forecast members that behave like samples from the same distribution as the verifying observations. They are therefore an attractive choice as loss func…

physics.ao-ph2024★ 9 cited

AIFS-CRPS: Ensemble forecasting using a model trained with a loss function based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score

Simon Lang, Mihai Alexe, Mariana C. A. Clare +15

Over the last three decades, ensemble forecasts have become an integral part of forecasting the weather. They provide users with more complete information than single forecasts as…