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q-fin.TR2026
Explainable Deep Learning for Price-Trade Dynamics: From Black-Box Forecasts to Effective Parametric Models
Manuel Naviglio, Fabrizio Lillo
Understanding the joint dynamics of prices and trades is central to market microstructure, where returns and order flow interact through nonlinear and state-dependent mechanisms. L…
q-fin.ST2026
Predicting the success of new crypto-tokens: the Pump.fun case
Giulio Marino, Manuel Naviglio, Francesco Tarantelli +1
We study the dynamics of token launched on Pump.fun, a Solana-based launchpad platform, to identify the determinants of the token success. Pump.fun employs a bonding curve mechanis…