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stat.ML2026
An analysis of binary isotonic regression: degrees of freedom and implications for calibration
Raphael Rossellini, Rina Foygel Barber, Zhimei Ren +1
Isotonic regression is a canonical tool for estimating monotone functions and calibrating probabilistic predictors. We provide a fully sharp finite-sample characterization of its w…
physics.ao-ph2026
Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction
Anna Asch, Raphael Rossellini, Pedram Hassanzadeh +1
Probabilistic weather forecasting is undergoing rapid transformation with artificial intelligence (AI). In traditional numerical weather prediction, computing power can limit how w…