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math.ST2026
Confidence intervals for causal effects in sequential decision making
Vladimir Vovk, Ruodu Wang
We derive confidence intervals and confidence sequences for causal effects in situations where the back-door criterion is applicable. Our tightest confidence intervals hold in the…
math.ST2026
Conformal e-prediction in the presence of confounding
Vladimir Vovk, Ruodu Wang
This note extends conformal e-prediction to cover the case where there is observed confounding between the random object and its label . We consider both the case where the…