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A penalized distributed lag non-linear Lee-Carter framework for regional weekly mortality forecasting
Jens Robben, Karim Barigou
Accurate forecasts of weekly mortality are essential for public health and the insurance industry. We develop a forecasting framework that extends the Lee-Carter model with age- an…
stat.AP2025★ 1 cited
Granular mortality modeling with temperature and epidemic shocks: a three-state regime-switching approach
Jens Robben, Karim Barigou, Torsten Kleinow
This paper develops a granular regime-switching framework to model mortality deviations from seasonal baseline trends driven by temperature and epidemic shocks. The framework featu…