3 papers
physics.ao-ph2026
Missing the Butterfly and Predicting the Past: Features or Bugs of Accurate AI Weather Models?
Pedram Hassanzadeh, Weidong Li, Y. Qiang Sun +4
AI weather prediction (AIWP) models rival physics-based models, yet the sources of their unexpected forecast accuracy and the degree of their physical fidelity remain unclear. Here…
physics.ao-ph2025
Predicting Beyond Training Data via Extrapolation versus Translocation: AI Weather Models and Dubai's Unprecedented 2024 Rainfall
Y. Qiang Sun, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Tiffany Shaw +1
Artificial intelligence (AI) models have transformed weather forecasting, but their skill for gray swan extremes is unclear. Here, we analyze GraphCast, AIFS, and FuXi forecasts of…
physics.ao-ph2024
Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones?
Y. Qiang Sun, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Mohsen Zand +3
Predicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI weather models and long-term climate…