activity
20232026
most citedCan AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones?

42 citations · 58 across the 5 of their papers we have counts for

collaborators

5 papers

physics.ao-ph2026

Missing the Butterfly and Predicting the Past: Features or Bugs of Accurate AI Weather Models?

Pedram Hassanzadeh, Weidong Li, Y. Qiang Sun +4

AI weather prediction (AIWP) models rival physics-based models, yet the sources of their unexpected forecast accuracy and the degree of their physical fidelity remain unclear. Here…

physics.ao-ph2025★ 1 cited

Predicting Beyond Training Data via Extrapolation versus Translocation: AI Weather Models and Dubai's Unprecedented 2024 Rainfall

Y. Qiang Sun, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Tiffany Shaw +1

Artificial intelligence (AI) models have transformed weather forecasting, but their skill for gray swan extremes is unclear. Here, we analyze GraphCast, AIFS, and FuXi forecasts of…

physics.ao-ph2024★ 42 cited

Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones?

Y. Qiang Sun, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Mohsen Zand +3

Predicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI weather models and long-term climate…

physics.ao-ph2023

Data Imbalance, Uncertainty Quantification, and Generalization via Transfer Learning in Data-driven Parameterizations: Lessons from the Emulation of Gravity Wave Momentum Transport in WACCM

Y. Qiang Sun, Hamid A. Pahlavan, Ashesh Chattopadhyay +6

Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data-driven subgrid-scale parameterization in weather and climate models. While NNs are powerful tools for learning complex nonlinea…

physics.flu-dyn2023★ 15 cited

Challenges of learning multi-scale dynamics with AI weather models: Implications for stability and one solution

Ashesh Chattopadhyay, Y. Qiang Sun, Pedram Hassanzadeh

Long-term stability and physical consistency are critical properties for AI-based weather models if they are going to be used for subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts or beyond, e.g.,…