3 citations · 4 across the 9 of their papers we have counts for
10 papers
Koopman early warning signals for bifurcation and rate-induced tipping
Juan Nathaniel, Carla Roesch, Derek DeSantis +5
Abrupt transitions in complex systems are often preceded by early warning signals. However, most indicators rely on the notion of critical slowing down and do not generally extend…
Wavelet Flow Matching for Multi-Scale Physics Emulation
Gabriele Accarino, Juan Nathaniel, Carla Roesch +4
Accurate emulation of multi-scale physical systems governed by PDEs demands models that remain stable over long autoregressive rollouts while preserving fine-scale structures. Dete…
In-context learning to predict critical transitions in dynamical systems
Yunus Sevinchan, Juan Nathaniel, Kai Ueltzhöffer +8
Critical transitions - abrupt, often irreversible changes in system dynamics - arise across human and natural systems, often with catastrophic consequences. Real-world observations…
Accurate and Efficient Hybrid-Ensemble Atmospheric Data Assimilation in Latent Space with Uncertainty Quantification
Hang Fan, Juan Nathaniel, Yi Xiao +5
Data assimilation (DA) combines model forecasts and observations to estimate the optimal state of the atmosphere with its uncertainty, providing initial conditions for weather pred…
Learning more physically realistic dynamics in machine-learning based weather forecasting with latent-space constraints
Hang Fan, Yi Xiao, Yongquan Qu +5
Data-driven machine learning (ML) models are reshaping weather forecasting and have shown the potential to accelerate and surpass traditional physics-based approaches, leading to a…
Deep Koopman operator framework for causal discovery in nonlinear dynamical systems
Juan Nathaniel, Carla Roesch, Jatan Buch +4
We use a deep Koopman operator-theoretic formalism to develop a novel causal discovery algorithm, Kausal. Causal discovery aims to identify cause-effect mechanisms for better scien…
CausalDynamics: A large-scale benchmark for structural discovery of dynamical causal models
Benjamin Herdeanu, Juan Nathaniel, Carla Roesch +4
Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associa…
Generative emulation of chaotic dynamics with coherent prior
Juan Nathaniel, Pierre Gentine
Data-driven emulation of nonlinear dynamics is challenging due to long-range skill decay that often produces physically unrealistic outputs. Recent advances in generative modeling…
Deep Generative Data Assimilation in Multimodal Setting
Yongquan Qu, Juan Nathaniel, Shuolin Li +1
Robust integration of physical knowledge and data is key to improve computational simulations, such as Earth system models. Data assimilation is crucial for achieving this goal bec…
ChaosBench: A Multi-Channel, Physics-Based Benchmark for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Prediction
Juan Nathaniel, Yongquan Qu, Tung Nguyen +4
Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster preparedness and robust decision making amidst climate change. Yet, forecasting beyond t…