16 citations · 41 across the 8 of their papers we have counts for
8 papers
Beyond data: leveraging non-empirical information and expert knowledge in Bayesian model calibration
Sarah A. Vollert, Christopher Drovandi, Cailan Jeynes-Smith +2
Mathematical models connect theory with the real world through data, enabling us to interpret, understand, and predict complex phenomena. However, scientific knowledge often extend…
Ecosystem knowledge should replace coexistence and stability assumptions in ecological network modelling
Sarah A. Vollert, Christopher Drovandi, Matthew P. Adams
Quantitative population modelling is an invaluable tool for identifying the cascading effects of ecosystem management and interventions. Ecosystem models are often constructed by a…
Ecosystem models cannot predict the consequences of conservation decisions
Larissa Lubiana Botelho, Cailan Jeynes-Smith, Sarah Vollert +1
Ecosystem models are often used to predict the consequences of management decisions in applied ecology, including fisheries management and threatened species conservation. These mo…
Data-driven recommendations for enhancing real-time natural hazard warnings, communication, and response
Kate R. Saunders, Owen Forbes, Jess K. Hopf +12
The effectiveness and adequacy of natural hazard warnings hinges on the availability of data and its transformation into actionable knowledge for the public. Real-time warning comm…
Beyond expected values: Making environmental decisions using value of information analysis when measurement outcome matters
Morenikeji D. Akinlotan, David J. Warne, Kate J. Helmstedt +5
In ecological and environmental contexts, management actions must sometimes be chosen urgently. Value of information (VoI) analysis provides a quantitative toolkit for projecting t…
Unlocking ensemble ecosystem modelling for large and complex networks
Sarah A. Vollert, Christopher Drovandi, Matthew P. Adams
The potential effects of conservation actions on threatened species can be predicted using ensemble ecosystem models by forecasting populations with and without intervention. These…
Strategic model reduction by analysing model sloppiness: a case study in coral calcification
Sarah A. Vollert, Christopher Drovandi, Gloria M. Monsalve-Bravo +1
It can be difficult to identify ways to reduce the complexity of large models whilst maintaining predictive power, particularly where there are hidden parameter interdependencies.…
Analysis of sloppiness in model simulations: unveiling parameter uncertainty when mathematical models are fitted to data
Gloria M. Monsalve-Bravo, Brodie A. J. Lawson, Christopher Drovandi +7
This work introduces a comprehensive approach to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to changes in parameter values, constrained by the combination of prior beliefs and data. T…