269 citations · 293 across the 5 of their papers we have counts for
6 papers
Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts
Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson
Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a…
Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 -- 2011, R.I.P
Yan. Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Robert J. Geller
Unfortunately, working scientists sometimes reflexively continue to use "buzz phrases" grounded in once prevalent paradigms that have been subsequently refuted. This can impede bot…
Long- and Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts during the Tohoku Sequence
Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson
We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numer…
Tohoku earthquake: a surprise?
Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson
We consider three questions related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) Why was the event size so grossly under-estimated? (2) How should we evaluate the chances of giant earth…
High Resolution Long- and Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts for California
M. J. Werner, A. Helmstetter, D. D. Jackson +1
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The…
Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering
A. Helmstetter, Y. Y. Kagan, D. D. Jackson
We estimate the relative importance of small and large earthquakes for static stress changes and for earthquake triggering, assuming that earthquakes are triggered by static stress…