3 papers
econ.GN2025
Recession Detection Using Classifiers on the Anticipation-Precision Frontier
Pascal Michaillat
This paper develops an algorithm for detecting US recessions in real time. The algorithm constructs hundreds of millions of recession classifiers by combining unemployment and vaca…
econ.GN2024
Has the Recession Started?
Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez
To answer this question, we develop a new Sahm-type recession indicator that combines vacancy and unemployment data. The indicator is the minimum of the Sahm indicator -- the diffe…
econ.TH2024
Beveridgean Phillips Curve
Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez
This paper proposes a new, Beveridgean model of the Phillips curve. While the New Keynesian Phillips Curve is based on monopolistic pricing under price-adjustment costs, the Beveri…