2 citations · 3 across the 5 of their papers we have counts for
5 papers
Learning to Detect Recessions from Pseudo-out-of-sample Tests
Pascal Michaillat
Everyone is keen to know when a recession has started, but official announcements come only after several months, and real-time detection methods typically struggle---as the Great…
Has the Recession Started?
Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez
To answer this question, we develop a new Sahm-type recession indicator that combines vacancy and unemployment data. The indicator is the minimum of the Sahm indicator -- the diffe…
Beveridgean Phillips Curve
Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez
This paper develops a Beveridgean model of the Phillips curve. While the New Keynesian Phillips curve is based on monopolistic pricing under price-adjustment costs, the Beveridgean…
Modeling Migration-Induced Unemployment
Pascal Michaillat
Immigration is often blamed for increasing unemployment among local workers. This sentiment is reflected in the rise of anti-immigration parties and policies in Western democracies…
Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez
This paper aims to compute the unemployment rate that is consistent with full employment in the United States. First, it argues that the most appropriate economic translation…