11 papers
Networked Spatial Effects in European Electricity Price Forecasting
Sultan Mahmud Chomon, Florian Ziel
As European bidding zones are highly interconnected by physical transmission lines, spatial influences propagate across neighboring nodes through a network. It is reflected in the…
Fast Training of Mixture-of-Experts for Time Series Forecasting via Expert Loss Integration
Btissame El Mahtout, Florian Ziel
We propose a novel adaptive Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) framework for time series forecasting that enhances expert specialization by incorporating expert-specific loss information dir…
Energy-Arena: A Dynamic Benchmark for Operational Energy Forecasting
Max Kleinebrahm, Jonathan Berrisch, Philipp Eiser +11
Energy forecasting research faces a persistent comparability gap that makes it difficult to measure consistent progress over time. Reported accuracy gains are often not directly co…
Online Distributional Regression
Simon Hirsch, Jonathan Berrisch, Florian Ziel
Large-scale streaming data are common in modern machine learning applications and have led to the development of online learning algorithms. Many fields, such as supply chain manag…
Probabilistic Forecasting for Day-ahead Electricity Prices, Battery Trading Strategies and the Economic Evaluation of Predictive Accuracy
Simon Hirsch, Florian Ziel
Electricity price forecasting supports decision-making in energy markets and asset operation. Probabilistic forecasts are increasingly adopted to explicitly quantify uncertainty, t…
Electricity Price Forecasting: Bridging Linear Models, Neural Networks and Online Learning
Btissame El Mahtout, Florian Ziel
Precise day-ahead forecasts for electricity prices are crucial to ensure efficient portfolio management, support strategic decision-making for power plant operations, enable effici…