A Nine-Compartment Nonlinear Epidemic Model with Spline-Based Identification of Time-Varying Transmission and Vaccination Dynamics: Application to the COVID-19 Third Wave in Italy

Lokman Rachid Melhani, Antonino Sferlazza, Lars Grüne +6

We develop a nine-compartment nonlinear epidemic model incorporating two co-circulating viral strains (ancestral I1 and the Alpha variant B.1.1.7 I2, which is 43-90% more transmiss…