4 papers
Partial Identification of Spatial Production Networks
Shaowen Luo, Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
Which regional exposure conclusions are identified when public data do not observe buyer-seller links across states? We study this question by treating the missing intermediate-inp…
Political Shocks and Price Discovery in Prediction Markets: Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
What do trading and prices each reveal when political news hits a prediction market? We answer using Polymarket's on-chain ledger around three shocks in the 2024 U.S. presidential…
The Anatomy of a Blockchain Prediction Market: Polymarket in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
Kwok Ping Tsang, Zichao Yang
Using on-chain Polygon data, we analyze Polymarket's 2024 U.S. Presidential Election market and develop a transaction-level accounting framework with two components: a volume decom…
Waiting Time Distribution of Supra-Arcade Downflows
Zichao Yang, Rui Liu
Supra-arcade downflows (SADs) are dark, sunward-moving structures above the arcade of flare loops. Naturally they are considered to be associated with outflows resulting from magne…