3 papers
stat.AP2026
Anticipating Continued Global Fertility Decline via Neural Forecasting
Daniel Ciganda, Facundo Morini, Francisco Piriz +3
The accelerating shift toward low and ultra-low fertility has intensified the debate over whether countries now undergoing rapid decline are approaching stabilization or entering a…
stat.AP2025
Learning Individual Reproductive Behavior from Aggregate Fertility Rates via Neural Posterior Estimation
Daniel Ciganda, Ignacio Campón, Iñaki Permanyer +1
Age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) provide the most extensive record of reproductive change, but their aggregate nature obscures the individual-level behavioral mechanisms that d…
stat.AP2023
Modeling the Age Pattern of Fertility: An Individual-Level Approach
Daniel Ciganda, Nicolas Todd
Macro-level modeling is still the dominant approach in many demographic applications because of its simplicity. Individual-level models, on the other hand, provide a more comprehen…