11 papers
Sovereign Stress Avalanches and Network Amplification in Latin America
Diego Vallarino
This paper studies sovereign stress avalanches and network amplification in Latin American credit markets using monthly J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified spreads for eleven sover…
Hall-Like Transversal Stress and Sandpile Criticality on Real Production Networks
Diego Vallarino
This paper develops a Hall-Sandpile model of economic instability that combines a Hall-like transversal stress mechanism with sandpile threshold dynamics on a real production-netwo…
Sandpile Economics: Theory, Identification, and Evidence
Diego Vallarino
Why do capitalist economies recurrently generate crises whose severity is disproportionate to the size of the triggering shock? This paper proposes a structural answer grounded in…
Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Dynamic Network Models
Diego Vallarino
We study identification and inference in nonlinear dynamic systems defined on unknown interaction networks. The system evolves through an unobserved dependence matrix governing cro…
Nonlinear Fiscal Transitions and the Dynamics of Public Expenditure Reform
Diego Vallarino
This paper develops a nonlinear theoretical framework to analyze the dynamics of public expenditure reallocation in Uruguay. Motivated by recent debates on fiscal reform and expend…
The Graph-Embedded Hazard Model (GEHM): Stochastic Network Survival Dynamics on Economic Graphs
Diego Vallarino
This paper develops a nonlinear evolution framework for modelling survival dynamics on weighted economic networks by coupling a graph-based -Laplacian diffusion operator with a…