4 papers
Collaborative estimation and evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 variant nowcasting in the United States
Isaac MacArthur, Thomas Robacker, Bren Case +27
The ability to estimate and predict pathogen variant dynamics can inform public health responses, including planning for increased transmission or severity, shifts in population im…
modelimportance: An R package for evaluating model importance within a multi-model ensemble
Minsu Kim, Li Shandross, Evan L. Ray +1
Ensemble forecasts are commonly used to support decision-making and policy planning across various fields because they often offer improved accuracy and stability compared to indiv…
Comparison of probabilistic nowcasts and forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 variant proportions made by hierarchical multinomial linear regression models
Isaac MacArthur, Thomas Robacker, Evan L. Ray +3
Nowcasting and forecasting of infectious diseases have become increasingly important since the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In particular, methods for modeling the composition of circulati…
Beyond forecast leaderboards: Measuring individual model importance based on contribution to ensemble accuracy
Minsu Kim, Evan L. Ray, Nicholas G. Reich
Ensemble forecasts often outperform forecasts from individual standalone models, and have been used to support decision-making and policy planning in various fields. As collaborati…