9 papers
Multi-pathogen situational assessment and forecasting of respiratory disease in Aotearoa New Zealand
M. J. Plank, A. R. Young, K. L. Senior +5
Real-time analysis of epidemic trends and forecasts can help support public health planning and the response to seasonal respiratory disease. Here, we present two models that were…
Joint economic and epidemiological modelling of alternative pandemic response strategies
M J Plank, M Sushames, T Fisher-Taylor +4
In an emerging pandemic, policymakers need to make important decisions with limited information, for example choosing between a mitigation, suppression or elimination strategy. The…
A method for including socio-demographic factors in social contact matrices for compartment-based epidemic models
Vincent X. Lomas, Tim Chambers, Leighton Watson +1
Socio-demographic factors influence social contact patterns and play a fundamental role in shaping the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. However, compartment-based mode…
How complex behavioural contagion can prevent infectious diseases from becoming endemic
Michael J. Plank, Matt Ryan, Lloyd Chapman +4
Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive beh…
Modelling the transmission and impact of Omicron variants of Covid-19 in different ethnicity groups in Aotearoa New Zealand
Samik Datta, Vincent X Lomas, Nicole Satherley +2
Previous pandemics, including influenza pandemics and Covid-19, have disproportionately impacted MÄori and Pacific populations in Aotearoa New Zealand. The reasons for this are mu…
Estimating excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic in Aotearoa New Zealand
Michael John Plank, Pubudu Senanayake, Richard Lyon
Background. The excess mortality rate in Aotearoa New Zealand during the Covid-19 pandemic is frequently estimated to be among the lowest in the world. However, to facilitate inter…