8 papers
Reservoir: A Large-Scale Simulated Dataset for Training and Evaluating Epidemiological Models
Carson Dudley, Reiden Magdaleno, Marisa Eisenberg
Large-scale, standardized datasets have driven many advances in AI-based scientific modeling, from protein structure prediction to natural language processing. Infectious disease e…
Latent Chain-of-Thought Improves Structured-Data Transformers
Carson Dudley, Samet Oymak
Chain-of-thought and more broadly test-time compute are known to augment the expressive capabilities of language models and have led to major innovations in reasoning. Motivated by…
Prediction Markets Underperform Simple Baselines For Infectious Disease Forecasting
Carson Dudley, Reiden Magdaleno
Prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi) allow participants to bet on future events, producing real-time forecasts based on collective judgment. In domains such as elections a…
In-Context Learning Under Regime Change
Carson Dudley, Yutong Bi, Xiaofeng Liu +1
Non-stationary sequences arise naturally in control, forecasting, and decision-making. The data-generating process shifts at unknown times, and models must detect the change, disca…
Learning From Simulators: A Theory of Simulation-Grounded Learning
Carson Dudley, Marisa Eisenberg
Simulation-Grounded Neural Networks (SGNNs) are predictive models trained entirely on synthetic data from mechanistic simulations. They have achieved state-of-the-art performance i…
Not All Accuracy Is Equal: Prioritizing Independence in Infectious Disease Forecasting
Carson Dudley, Marisa Eisenberg
Ensemble forecasts have become a cornerstone of large-scale disease response, underpinning decision making at agencies such as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CD…
Mantis: A Foundation Model for Mechanistic Disease Forecasting
Carson Dudley, Reiden Magdaleno, Christopher Harding +3
Infectious disease forecasting in novel outbreaks or low-resource settings is hampered by the need for large disease and covariate data sets, bespoke training, and expert tuning, a…
Simulation as Supervision: Mechanistic Pretraining for Scientific Discovery
Carson Dudley, Reiden Magdaleno, Christopher Harding +1
Scientific modeling faces a tradeoff between the interpretability of mechanistic theory and the predictive power of machine learning. While existing hybrid approaches have made pro…