activity
20092025
most citedThe association between stratospheric weak polar vortex events and cold air outbreaks

414 citations · 552 across the 7 of their papers we have counts for

collaborators

7 papers

physics.ao-ph2025

Technical overview and architecture of the FastNet Machine Learning weather prediction model, version 1.0

Eric G. Daub, Tom Dunstan, Thusal Bennett +30

We present FastNet version 1.0, a data-driven medium range numerical weather prediction (NWP) model based on a Graph Neural Network architecture, developed jointly between the Alan…

physics.ao-ph2025

FastNet: Improving the physical consistency of machine-learning weather prediction models through loss function design

Tom Dunstan, Oliver Strickson, Thusal Bennett +31

Machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models have demonstrated remarkable potential in delivering accurate forecasts at significantly reduced computational cost compared to tr…

physics.ao-ph2025

Skilful global seasonal predictions from a machine learning weather model trained on reanalysis data

Chris Kent, Adam A. Scaife, Nick J. Dunstone +4

Machine learning weather models trained on observed atmospheric conditions can outperform conventional physics-based models at short- to medium-range (1-14 day) forecast timescales…

physics.ao-ph2017★ 48 cited

Seasonal forecasts of the summer 2016 Yangtze River basin rainfall

Philip E. Bett, Adam A. Scaife, Chaofan Li +8

The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history, and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods…

physics.ao-ph2017★ 20 cited

Skill and reliability of seasonal forecasts for the Chinese energy sector

Philip E. Bett, Hazel E. Thornton, Julia F. Lockwood +6

We assess the skill and reliability of forecasts of winter and summer temperature, wind speed and irradiance over China, using the GloSea5 seasonal forecast system. Skill in such f…

stat.AP2015★ 70 cited

A Bayesian framework for verification and recalibration of ensemble forecasts: How uncertain is NAO predictability?

Stefan Siegert, David B. Stephenson, Philip G. Sansom +3

Predictability estimates of ensemble prediction systems are uncertain due to limited numbers of past forecasts and observations. To account for such uncertainty, this paper propose…

physics.ao-ph2009★ 414 cited

The association between stratospheric weak polar vortex events and cold air outbreaks

E. W. Kolstad, T. Breiteig, A. A. Scaife

Previous studies have identified an association between near-surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere and weak stratospheric polar westerlies. Large regions in nort…