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math.ST2025
Conditional Forecasts and Proper Scoring Rules for Reliable and Accurate Performative Predictions
Philip Boeken, Onno Zoeter, Joris M. Mooij
Performative predictions are forecasts which influence the outcomes they aim to predict, undermining the existence of correct forecasts and standard methods of elicitation and esti…
stat.ME2025
Revisiting the Berkeley Admissions data: Statistical Tests for Causal Hypotheses
Sourbh Bhadane, Joris M. Mooij, Philip Boeken +1
Reasoning about fairness through correlation-based notions is rife with pitfalls. The 1973 University of California, Berkeley graduate school admissions case from Bickel et. al. (1…