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stat.ML2026

Why Heavy-Tailed Weight Spectra Predict Model Quality

Joseph Wilson, Chris van der Heide, Liam Hodgkinson +3

A solid understanding of the predictive success of deep neural networks (DNNs) remains elusive. For example, while many data-dependent metrics exist that seek to predict model qual…

cs.AI2026

Eigenanalysis framework for autoregressive neural emulators of multi-scale chaotic dynamics

Conrad Ainslie, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Michael W. Mahoney +1

Neural autoregressive models have rapidly emerged as powerful emulators of high-dimensional chaotic systems, yet their long-term instability and error growth remain poorly understo…

stat.ML2026

Eigen-Spike Emergence and Quadratic Equivalents for Conjugate Kernels on Nonlinearly Separable Data

Collin Cranston, Zhichao Wang, Todd Kemp +1

Recent work in random matrix theory (RMT) has developed the notion of deterministic equivalents: typically linear surrogate models that approximate the spectral behavior of large n…

cs.LG2026

AlphaQ: Calibration-Free Bit Allocation for Mixture-of-Experts Quantization

Wanqi Yang, Yuexiao Ma, Alexander Conzelmann +4

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures scale model capacity through sparse expert activation, but their deployment remains memory-bound because all expert weights must reside in me…

stat.ML2026

Free Decompression with Algebraic Spectral Curves

Siavash Ameli, Chris van der Heide, Liam Hodgkinson +1

Tools from random matrix theory have become central to deep learning theory, using spectral information to provide mechanisms for modeling generalization, robustness, scaling, and…