4 papers
The Value of Information: A Puzzle
Ohad Kadan, Asaf Manela
We show that the total value of information to informed traders can be measured by the covariation between price changes and order flow. This covariation captures noise trader loss…
Instruction Tuning Chronologically Consistent Language Models
Songrun He, Linying Lv, Asaf Manela +1
We introduce a family of chronologically consistent, instruction-tuned large language models to eliminate lookahead bias. Each model is trained only on data available before a clea…
Chronologically Consistent Large Language Models
Songrun He, Linying Lv, Asaf Manela +1
Large language models are increasingly used in social sciences, but their training data can introduce lookahead bias and training leakage. A good chronologically consistent languag…
Fundamentals of Perpetual Futures
Songrun He, Asaf Manela, Omri Ross +1
Perpetual futures are the most popular cryptocurrency derivatives. Perpetuals offer leveraged exposure to their underlying without rollover or direct ownership. Unlike fixed-maturi…