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Conformal Prediction via Transported Beta Laws
Thiago R. Ramos, Helton Graziadei, Luben M. C. Cabezas
Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, but this guarantee averages over the random calibration sample. We study instead the law…
LOCUS: A Distribution-Free Loss-Quantile Score for Risk-Aware Predictions
Matheus Barreto, Mário de Castro, Thiago R. Ramos +2
Modern machine learning models can be accurate on average yet still make mistakes that dominate deployment cost. We introduce Locus, a distribution-free wrapper that produces a per…
LoBoost: Fast Model-Native Local Conformal Prediction for Gradient-Boosted Trees
Vagner Santos, Victor Coscrato, Luben Cabezas +2
Gradient-boosted decision trees are among the strongest off-the-shelf predictors for tabular regression, but point predictions alone do not quantify uncertainty. Conformal predicti…