2 papers
eess.SP2025
What If They Took the Shot? A Hierarchical Bayesian Framework for Counterfactual Expected Goals
Mikayil Mahmudlu, Oktay Karakuş, Hasan Arkadaş
This study develops a hierarchical Bayesian framework that integrates expert domain knowledge to quantify player-specific effects in expected goals (xG) estimation, addressing a li…
cs.LG2025
Adaptive Heterogeneous Mixtures of Normalising Flows for Robust Variational Inference
Benjamin Wiriyapong, Oktay Karakuş, Kirill Sidorov
Normalising-flow variational inference (VI) can approximate complex posteriors, yet single-flow models often behave inconsistently across qualitatively different distributions. We…