6 papers
Early-Warning Signals of Political Risk in Stablecoin Markets: Human and Algorithmic Behavior Around the 2024 U.S. Election
Kundan Mukhia, Buddha Nath Sharma, Salam Rabindrajit Luwang +4
We study how the 2024 U.S. presidential election, viewed as a major political risk event, affected cryptocurrency markets by distinguishing human-driven peer-to-peer stablecoin tra…
Forecasting precipitation in the Arctic using probabilistic machine learning informed by causal climate drivers
Madhurima Panja, Dhiman Das, Tanujit Chakraborty +6
Understanding and forecasting precipitation events in the Arctic maritime environments, such as Bear Island and Ny-Ålesund, is crucial for assessing climate risk and developing ear…
Macroeconomic Forecasting for the G7 countries under Uncertainty Shocks
Shovon Sengupta, Sunny Kumar Singh, Tanujit Chakraborty
Accurate macroeconomic forecasting has become harder amid geopolitical disruptions, policy reversals, and volatile financial markets. Conventional vector autoregressions (VARs) ove…
Universal Patterns in the Blockchain: Analysis of EOAs and Smart Contracts in ERC20 Token Networks
Kundan Mukhia, SR Luwang, Md. Nurujjaman +3
Scaling laws offer a powerful lens to understand complex transactional behaviors in decentralized systems. This study reveals distinctive statistical signatures in the transactiona…
Probabilistic Forecasting of Climate Policy Uncertainty: The Role of Macro-financial Variables and Google Search Data
Donia Besher, Anirban Sengupta, Tanujit Chakraborty
Accurately forecasting Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) is essential for designing climate strategies that balance economic growth with environmental objectives. Elevated CPU level…
Developing cholera outbreak forecasting through qualitative dynamics: Insights into Malawi case study
Adrita Ghosh, Parthasakha Das, Tanujit Chakraborty +2
Cholera, an acute diarrheal disease, is a serious concern in developing and underdeveloped areas. A qualitative understanding of cholera epidemics aims to foresee transmission patt…