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Adaptive Regime-Switching Forecasts with Distribution-Free Uncertainty: Deep Switching State-Space Models Meet Conformal Prediction
Echo Diyun LU, Charles Findling, Marianne Clausel +3
Regime transitions routinely break stationarity in time series, making calibrated uncertainty as important as point accuracy. We study distribution-free uncertainty for regime-swit…
CausalProfiler: Generating Synthetic Benchmarks for Rigorous and Transparent Evaluation of Causal Machine Learning
Panayiotis Panayiotou, Audrey Poinsot, Alessandro Leite +3
Causal machine learning (Causal ML) aims to answer "what if" questions using machine learning algorithms, making it a promising tool for high-stakes decision-making. Yet, empirical…
Position: Causal Machine Learning Requires Rigorous Synthetic Experiments for Broader Adoption
Audrey Poinsot, Panayiotis Panayiotou, Alessandro Leite +3
Causal machine learning has the potential to revolutionize decision-making by combining the predictive power of machine learning algorithms with the theory of causal inference. How…
Tuning without Peeking: Provable Generalization Bounds and Robust LLM Post-Training
Ismail Labiad, Mathurin Videau, Matthieu Kowalski +4
Gradient-based optimization is the workhorse of deep learning, offering efficient and scalable training via backpropagation. However, exposing gradients during training can leak se…
From Bytes to Ideas: Language Modeling with Autoregressive U-Nets
Mathurin Videau, Badr Youbi Idrissi, Alessandro Leite +3
Tokenization imposes a fixed granularity on the input text, freezing how a language model operates on data and how far in the future it predicts. Byte Pair Encoding (BPE) and simil…