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cs.LG2025
Adaptive Regime-Switching Forecasts with Distribution-Free Uncertainty: Deep Switching State-Space Models Meet Conformal Prediction
Echo Diyun LU, Charles Findling, Marianne Clausel +3
Regime transitions routinely break stationarity in time series, making calibrated uncertainty as important as point accuracy. We study distribution-free uncertainty for regime-swit…
cs.AI2025
Identifiability in Causal Abstractions: A Hierarchy of Criteria
Clément Yvernes, Emilie Devijver, Marianne Clausel +1
Identifying the effect of a treatment from observational data typically requires assuming a fully specified causal diagram. However, such diagrams are rarely known in practice, esp…